Uneven Transitions Toward Circular Agriculture in the EU: Regulatory Drivers, Structural Barriers, and the Role of Policy Implementation Heterogeneity

The present paper analyses the extent to which European Union regulatory frameworks induce the development of circular agriculture within the European Union. In order to evaluate the progress towards circular agriculture within the European Union, a composite Agricultural Circularity Index (ACI) was developed for all EU-27 Member States for the period of 2014–2023. An expert interview and a TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making technique were employed for the construction of the ACI. Results indicate only marginal improvements in the development of circular agriculture on the aggregate EU level, although a pronounced cross-country divergence towards achieving circularity in agriculture was observed. The following four distinct trajectories in the evolution of the circular economy within the EU were distinguished: structurally advancing promoters, short-term breakthrough cases, high baseline, but eroding systems, and mixed or stagnating countries. Indicator decomposition analysis reveals that durable circularity gains in agriculture arise when increased material recirculation coincides with verifiable bandwidth, whereas intensifying input use frequently negates the progress. The findings underscore that regulatory ambition alone is insufficient: implementation design, uncompromised enforcement, and market integration determine whether initial initiatives towards circular agriculture materialize into sustainable practices or remain transitory. From a policy perspective, the ACI functions as a diagnostic tool to locate structural bottlenecks and to target CAP-style interventions where circular flows can be scaled most effectively.