Green Credit Policy, ESG Performance, and Corporate Capital Structure—Empirical Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

Green credit policies serve as the driving force behind the green allocation of credit resources and constitute a key strategy for promoting capital structure optimization among highly polluting enterprises. Utilizing data from Chinese A-share listed companies between 2007 and 2023, this study employs the implementation of the 2012 Green Credit Guidelines (hereinafter referred to as the Guidelines) as a quasi-natural experiment. It empirically examines the impact of green credit policy implementation on the capital structures of China’s heavily polluting enterprises and its underlying mechanisms. Findings indicate: (1) Following the Guidelines’ promulgation, the financial leverage ratios of heavily polluting enterprises declined significantly, restraining capital structure expansion. The policy thus played a positive role in optimizing their capital structures. (2) Mechanism tests reveal that corporate ESG performance exerts a positive moderating effect within the relationship between green credit policies and corporate capital structure. The Guidelines heightened attention to ESG performance, which in turn constrained debt financing channels and strengthened equity financing, thereby reducing corporate financial leverage. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals asymmetric impacts of the green credit policy, with state-owned heavily polluting enterprises and those in eastern and central regions experiencing more pronounced reductions in financial leverage following policy changes. This study elucidates the mechanism through which the Guidelines’ implementation moderate’s capital structure, providing crucial empirical evidence for refining green credit policies and upgrading the capital structures of heavily polluting enterprises.