Foreign Direct Investments and Economic Growth in Romania: A Time-Series Approach for Sustainable Development

This study examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Romania during 2003–2023, by distinguishing the effects of FDI stock and FDI flow, with a focus on sustainable development. Because the variables have different integration orders, we used the ARDL model and the bounds test to check the long-run relationship between real GDP per capita and FDI stock, FDI inflows, exports, and labor productivity growth. The refined ARDL model (adjusted for multicollinearity) confirms a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, with all coefficients statistically significant at the 5% level. Long-run elasticities indicate that economic growth is primarily driven by FDI stock (0.23) and exports (0.24), validating the “export–investment nexus” hypothesis. Also, FDI inflows contribute positively (0.09), while labor productivity remains a critical internal determinant (0.03). Short-run dynamics, captured through the ARDL-ECM specification, reveal that only labor productivity exerts an immediate effect, whereas foreign capital plays a structural stabilizing role. The error correction term (–0.279) suggests an adjustment speed of approximately 27.9% annually, reflecting strong economic resilience across EU ascension (2007), financial crisis (2008–2009), and COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021). Our study contributes to the literature regarding the effects of FDI in Romania, by simultaneously including FDI stock and flow and considering the pandemic period. Also, our study employs dynamic productivity specification and provides transparent model selection procedures within a sustainable framework. The results in this study are of interest for policymakers, emphasizing the need to focus on attracting quality FDI (green and high-tech investments, investor retention, and human capital development) which can facilitate sustainability-oriented strategies that could lead to sustainable economic growth.