Assessing the Impacts of Land Use Patterns on Nitrogen and Phosphorus Exports in an Agricultural Watershed of the Lijiang River Basin

The nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in water is highly related to the land use pattern in the watershed. The impacts of the land use patterns on total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) exports in an agricultural watershed of the Lijiang River Basin were studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model performed well in simulating runoff, TN, and TP exports, and the R 2 values were all above 0.67. The model simulation results showed that the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) outputs in the wet season were 13.97 tons and 1.37 tons, respectively, approximately three times those in the dry season, highlighting that outputs of TN and TP predominantly occurred in the wet season in the basin. The correlation analysis showed that the forest land and water in the sub-basin had negative impacts on TN and TP exports, while the orchard, cultivated land, and building land had a positive correlation with TN and TP exports. Then, scenario simulations were conducted using the calibrated and validated SWAT model. A total of 55 scenarios were set up, involving five land use types with five conversion ratios (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%), to analyze the impacts of dynamic land use changes on TN and TP exports. The results showed that the TN and TP exports significantly increased under the conversion of the other land use types into building land, cultivated land, and orchards, and the increasing rate decreased in order, while the TN and TP exports declined with the rising forest and water body area. Generally, the changing rates of TN exports under land use conversion were higher than those of TP exports, except for the orchard conversion. This study revealed that the reasonable planning of land use could alleviate nitrogen and phosphorus pollution, which was helpful for aquatic ecosystem restoration. It provided scientific references for land use planning, aquatic ecosystem restoration, and the achievement of sustainable development goals related to water environment protection in similar karst basins.