Green Transformation and Carbon Performance: The Cognition–Disclosure Chain Under China’s Carbon Policy Reform

Under China’s “dual carbon” targets and deepening global climate governance, this paper investigates whether and how corporate green transformation (GTF) improves carbon performance (CP). Using panel data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2008 to 2023 and multiple causal identification strategies (fixed effects, RD, DID and PSM), we find that GTF significantly enhances CP, with stronger marginal effects for firms with poorer initial carbon performance. Mechanism analyses show that carbon disclosure (CD) acts as a positive mediator in the GTF–CP nexus, whereas executives’ green perception (EGP) exerts a short-term suppressing effect. Policy analyses further indicate that the 2012 pilot emissions trading schemes and the 2021 national carbon market amplify the positive impact of GTF on CP, but local “compliance traps” around industry medians suggest strategic use of allowance trading. The study integrates EGP and CD into a cognition–disclosure framework linking GTF and CP and provides evidence on the emission-reduction effects of GTF under evolving carbon policies, with implications for carbon market design and corporate low-carbon governance.