Integration of Digital Economy and Real Economy and the Transition Toward a Low-Carbon Economy: The Case of Chinese Provincial Regions, 2006–2023

The pursuit of low-carbon economic development represents an inherent requirement for implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and serves as a vital support for advancing SDG 7, SDG 9, and SDG 13. Drawing on provincial data from China (2006–2023), this research investigates how digital-real convergence influences low-carbon economic development. The results demonstrate a positive contribution of this convergence to growth in the low-carbon economy, and it proves to be superior to models reliant solely on either digital-digital or real-real convergence. A notable finding is the considerable regional variation in the effect. It is strong in both eastern and western parts of the country, which stands in sharp contrast to central China, where the effect is statistically insignificant or negative. Identified as underlying mechanisms are the agglomeration of innovative talent and the accumulation of innovative capital. Additionally, a single-threshold effect of urbanization level is identified, indicating that the positive impact strengthens only after urbanization surpasses a critical value. Furthermore, digital-real convergence not only enhances local low-carbon development but also generates positive spillover effects on neighboring regions. Thus, to fully advance the SDGs, policy formulation and implementation must account for regional heterogeneity, prioritize the elevation of urbanization levels, enhance cross-regional collaboration, and amplify the enabling role of digital-real integration.