The Economics of Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Market Trends and Policy Challenges in Selected EU Countries

The aviation sector is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and the European Union (EU) is calling for a rapid transition to sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). This study aims to assess market dynamics and regulatory challenges of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) in the European Union, with emphasis on economic feasibility and the role of policy frameworks. Using econometric methods: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models, forecasts of SAF infrastructure development trajectories were produced, while regression analysis was applied to assess the relationship between national GDP and the scale of SAF deployment. The results revealed a statistically significant positive link between higher economic development and faster expansion of SAF infrastructure, highlighting the policy-driven nature of market dynamics. Germany and France demonstrate the greatest growth potential, while countries such as Italy and Denmark show slower progress. The findings confirm that clear regulatory frameworks and targeted economic incentives are essential to stimulate SAF uptake; however, additional investment and stronger policy harmonization across Member States are required to achieve large-scale commercialization and long-term sustainability. The empirical analysis utilizes data from 2015 to 2023 to estimate SAF infrastructure trajectories and policy effects, ensuring sufficient temporal coverage for robust econometric modeling and forecasting.