Green Finance, Local Government Competition, and Industrial Green Transformation: Evidence from China

Amid intensifying challenges of global climate change, China—as the world’s largest carbon emitter and a major manufacturing hub—occupies a pivotal position in the global industrial green transformation. Drawing on environmental federalism theory and China’s decentralized governance model, this study develops a framework of “green finance–local government competition–industrial green transformation.” Using panel data from 283 cities in China, we employ spatial econometrics and mediation effect models to test the dual mechanisms by which green finance promotes industrial green transformation. The findings indicate that (1) green finance promotes industrial green transformation; (2) green finance advances industrial green transformation by dismantling China’s traditional local government competition–based development model and removing the institutional suppression arising from “race-to-the-bottom competition”; (3) the effect of green finance exhibits long-run characteristics and a “benchmark–imitation” pattern; (4) baseline environmental conditions strengthen the influence of green finance on industrial green transformation; (5) incorporating ecological civilization development into officials’ performance evaluations can effectively reshape policy incentives and amplify the positive role of green finance. Thus, we propose differentiated green finance policies, the construction of a governance mechanism that integrates fiscal–financial–ecological compensation, and the optimization of ecological civilization assessment indicators to curb campaign-style governance.