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Susceptibility Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Palong Zangbu River Basin, Lower Yarlung Tsangpo, China

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  • Changhu Li

    (College of Geoscience and Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
    Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited, Power Construction Corporation, Xi’an 710065, China)

  • Ge Qu

    (State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Shuwu Li

    (Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited, Power Construction Corporation, Xi’an 710065, China)

  • Zhengzheng Li

    (Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited, Power Construction Corporation, Xi’an 710065, China
    State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Weile Li

    (State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

Abstract

With global climate warming, reports of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have become increasingly frequent, highlighting the crucial need for robust GLOF sensitivity assessment methods for disaster prevention and mitigation. A reliable GLOF susceptibility assessment method was developed and applied in the Palong Zangbu River Basin in the Nagqu region of the Tibetan Plateau, integrating Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), glacier data, remote sensing imagery, and field survey data. The assessment evaluated the potential hazard levels of glacier lakes. Between 2000 and 2023, both the number and area of glacier lakes in the basin showed an increasing trend. Specifically, the number of glacier lakes larger than 0.08 km 2 increased by 32, with an area expansion of 14.17 km 2 , corresponding to a growth rate of 43.95%. Based on the GLOF susceptibility assessment, 15 glacier lakes were identified as potentially hazardous in the study area, with the robustness of the method validated through ROC curve analysis. Therefore, it is recommended to regularly apply this method for GLOF susceptibility assessments in the Palong Zangbu River Basin, updating monitoring data and remote sensing imagery. This research provides valuable insights for GLOF susceptibility assessments in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region.

Suggested Citation

  • Changhu Li & Ge Qu & Shuwu Li & Zhengzheng Li & Weile Li, 2025. "Susceptibility Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Palong Zangbu River Basin, Lower Yarlung Tsangpo, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:24:p:11219-:d:1818259
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