Ranking Port Criticality Under Climate Change: An Assessment of Greece

Ports are vital components of global and regional supply chains, supporting trade, transport connectivity, and socio-economic development. However, their functionality is increasingly threatened by climatic hazards such as sea-level rise and heat stress, both of which are projected to intensify under future climate change. This study presents a comprehensive framework for assessing the criticality of ports within a national network, demonstrated through its application to the Greek port system, which encompasses a multitude of ports of all types from large international hubs to small island ones. The framework combines openly accessible geospatial and socio-economic data with projections of exposure to sea-level rise and extreme heat within a structured multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, enabling the identification of critical ports and the prioritization of adaptation needs. Results show that large mainland ports dominate in socio-economic importance and network centrality, while smaller island ports are vital locally due to limited redundancy and high exposure to climatic hazards. By 2100, nearly all ports are projected to experience freeboard reductions below operational thresholds and increased heat-related stress. These results highlight the need for targeted adaptation measures, including engineering interventions for mainland ports and redundancy-enhancing actions for island ports. The proposed framework provides a replicable, data-driven tool to guide evidence-based prioritization of adaptation investments and strengthen climate-resilient maritime transport and coastal management, thereby contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1.5, 9 and 13.