Forecasting Industrial Carbon Peaking and Exploring Emission Reduction Pathways at the Metropolitan Scale: A Multi-Scenario STIRPAT Analysis of the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area

The rapid development of industry has led to intensive energy and resource consumption, increasing carbon emissions. As key areas for carbon control, metropolitan regions play an essential role in China’s urbanization and regional development, yet research on predicting industrial carbon emissions remains insufficient. This study takes the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area in China as a case study and employs an extended STIRPAT model to predict industrial carbon emissions from 2024 to 2050 across different scenarios. The results show that industrial carbon emission intensity has the most significant impact on carbon emissions, followed by urbanization, population, economy, industrial structure, technology, energy intensity, and openness. The peak time of industrial carbon emissions varies significantly under different scenarios. The peak appears in 2026 under the deep emission reduction scenario, in 2028 under the green economy scenario, in 2030 under the baseline scenario, and does not occur by 2050 under the extensive development scenario. The green economy scenario achieves effective emission reductions with the least economic impact and is superior to the single-emission-reduction-oriented deep-emission-reduction scenario. This study responds to China’s “dual-carbon” strategy and provides a replicable and transferable regional pathway for industrial decarbonization and policy-making in other metropolitan areas.