The Impact of Agricultural Hukou on Migrants’ Home Purchasing in Destination Cities of China

The dual Hukou system, originating in China’s planned economy period, structured Chinese society into separate urban and rural segments, thereby generating distinct sets of rights and benefits for agricultural and non-agricultural residents regarding land, social security, education, and healthcare. Urban home purchase is a pivotal indicator of social integration for rural–urban migrants in destination cities. While the literature has extensively examined migrants’ residential conditions in China, the institutional impact of the agricultural hukou system—a core constraint—on their urban homeownership, along with its underlying mechanisms and heterogeneity, remains underexplored. To address this gap, this study adopts a twofold approach: theoretically, it employs the separating equilibrium model in housing markets with incomplete information to verify that agricultural hukou acts as an institutional barrier to migrants’ local home purchases; empirically, it uses data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) and applies the Fairlie decomposition method to quantify the constraint effect. The empirical results suggest that agricultural hukou exerts a 29.72% suppressive effect on migrants’ urban home purchase behavior. This effect operates indirectly by weakening migrants’ long-term settlement intention, which serves as a mediating variable. Moreover, the hindrance of agricultural hukou varies heterogeneously across groups, differing in education level, generational cohort, and regional distribution. To advance the fair and sustainable development of the real estate market, we advocate accelerating hukou reform by decoupling public services from residence status, fostering inclusive urbanization, and ensuring equitable development of housing markets.