The Impact of Controversial Events on Corporate Resilience: The Chain-Mediating Role of ESG and Value-at-Risk

In volatile economic environments, corporate resilience is a prerequisite for sustainable development. This study explores the non-linear impact of controversial events on corporate resilience using a sample of 4430 listed Chinese firms from 2018 to 2023. By applying the Double Machine Learning (DML) framework and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), we uncover a distinct non-linear effect: mild controversies act as “stress tests” enhancing resilience, while severe events diminish it. Furthermore, we validate a novel “Controversial Events→ESG→VaR→Resilience” chain-mediating mechanism, where ESG improvements translate into reduced financial tail risk (VaR). Theoretically, this research bridges the gap between non-financial performance and financial risk management, while methodologically overcoming linear model limitations by pinpointing crisis “tipping points”. Practically, the findings imply that managers should prioritize ESG disclosure as a strategic “risk buffer” to stabilize market expectations. For policymakers and investors, the study suggests that regulatory frameworks and capital allocation strategies must account for the non-linear dynamics of controversies to foster long-term sustainability.