Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Structural Drivers of Urban Inclusive Green Development in Coastal China

In China’s rapidly urbanizing coastal areas, inclusive green development (IGD) has become an important way to achieve a reduction in economic development disparities, environmental sustainability, and social equity. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics and structural drivers of IGD across 54 coastal cities within three marine economic zones (MEZs) using a hybrid analytical framework that integrates evaluation techniques, inequality decomposition, spatial factor detection, and spatial econometrics. The result shows that a distinctive “four-pillar” spatial structure has emerged, centered on the Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River Delta (YRD), West Coast of the Taiwan Strait, and Pearl River Delta (PRD). Spatial autocorrelation has intensified since 2020, indicating the cumulative effect of China’s post-2020 regional integration policies and digital infrastructure investments, which accelerated resource flows between cities. Spatial econometric analysis further reveals that economic development and equitable public service provision are the most influential drivers, while public investment in R&D and digital transformation exhibit significant cross-city spillover effects. The findings highlight the importance of regionally adaptive and digitally integrated strategies to promote inclusive and sustainable urban development in coastal economies. Therefore, efforts should be intensified to strengthen the role of core cities as diffusion engines for neighboring areas, with a strategic focus on regional digital transformation and R&D investment, to advance inclusive and sustainable development in coastal economies.