Heterogeneity Analysis of Factors Influencing Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Basin: The Impact of National High-Quality Economic Development

Evaluating the relationship between dynamic carbon emission intensity (CEI) and high-quality economic development (HQED) provides crucial insights for advancing national strategies focused on ecological preservation and sustainable high-quality development. This study employed an integrated analytical framework that combines the entropy-weight TOPSIS model, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, the spatial autocorrelation, and a two-way fixed effects model to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Basin from 2010 to 2022. The results indicated that: (1) Temporal analysis revealed a consistent annual decline in CEI levels, coupled with steady improvements in HQED. The coordination between these two systems was reflected in the estimated CCD, and it showed an upward trend, with the lower reaches experiencing the most rapid progress in coordination. (2) Spatial analysis revealed a polycentric development pattern, with Shanghai serving as the central core, and other metropolises such as Nanjing and Hangzhou acting as secondary cores. The high–high agglomeration area has been progressively expanding each year. (3) Analysis of influencing factors revealed that their impacts diminished in the following order: human capital, economic development, urbanization, green innovation, government support, industrial structure, and openness. Each of these influencing factors demonstrated distinct spatiotemporal heterogeneity, varying in their impact across different regions and time periods. The study finally provided recommendations, emphasizing the need for coordinated development strategies in the YREB, taking regional dynamics into account, and promoting green economic transformations while ensuring ecological and environmental sustainability.