Study on the Matching Analysis of Urban Population–Land Spatial Distribution and the Influencing Factors of Multinomial Logistic Classification in Xinjiang

As the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt, Xinjiang still faces problems such as unbalanced development in the process of urban–rural integration, accompanied by the increasingly prominent imbalance between population flow and land resource allocation in county-level towns. Specifically, clarifying the impact of urban–rural integration development on the human–land matching relationship in Xinjiang’s county-level towns is the key to promoting coordinated regional development. This study constructs a spatial matching model and a multinomial logistic regression model to analyze the human–land relationship and the influencing factors of urban–rural integration in 83 county-level towns in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2023. The research results show that (1) from 2010 to 2023, there were significant differences in the spatial matching degree between the total amount and increase in urban population and urban land in Xinjiang’s county-level towns; the number of counties with a relatively high matching level was generally larger in northern Xinjiang than in southern Xinjiang, and the overall spatial matching degree was at a relatively low level. (2) The proportion of counties with sustained population growth and sustained land growth was the highest, reaching 49.40% and 26.51%, respectively. Counties in southern Xinjiang were mainly of the sustained-population-growth type, while counties in northern Xinjiang had more types and were scattered, and were mainly of the land-growth type as a whole. (3) Factors such as the proportion of ethnic minority population, the comparison of industrial output value, and the number of medical beds per capita had a significant impact on the spatial matching level of urban population and land in most types of counties. The types of counties in southern Xinjiang were mainly affected by factors such as the ethnic population structure and medical conditions, while the counties in northern Xinjiang were mostly affected by factors such as the level of industrial coordination and urban spatial expansion. It is suggested to implement differentiated spatial governance and enhance coordination between southern and northern Xinjiang, thereby improving the level of human–land matching and promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas.