How Policy Misalignment Shapes the Municipal Solid Waste Disposal Capacity: A Multi-Level Governance Analysis

Policy misalignment is a key factor affecting the implementation of solid waste management policies and resolving such a misalignment is critical to advancing the solid waste disposal capacity (SWDC) and supporting the goal of a “zero-waste city”. This policy misalignment indicator provides a measurable tool to track progress toward Sustainable Cities and Communities. This study used panel data from 281 cities at the prefecture level and above from 2018 to 2022. The study involved constructing an original database of central and provincial policy documents on urban waste governance and transforming the policy documents into an indicator to capture the degree of policy misalignment, which serves as the key explanatory variable in a fixed-effects model. The study further examined how fiscal decentralization, the digital economy, and regional and administrative characteristics influence cities’ responses to policy misalignments. These factors serve a vital function in moderating the effects of misalignment and explaining heterogeneity across cities. The empirical results show that a vertical policy misalignment significantly reduced the solid waste disposal capacity, while fiscal decentralization and digital economy development mitigated its negative effects. The adverse impacts were particularly pronounced in non-key cities, eastern regions, and cities with low government attention, highlighting the role of local capacity and administrative focus in mediating cross-level policy impacts. The heterogeneous effects observed across city types further offer targeted insights for designing sustainability-oriented waste management policies, enabling regions to tailor interventions based on their administrative capacity and development context.