Agriculture, Regulation, and Sectoral Dynamics in the Carbon Transition: Evidence from an Integrated Environmental Kuznets Framework

This study extends the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework to analyze the growth–emissions nexus in twelve post-socialist European countries by integrating agricultural development, regulatory quality, renewable energy, and transport dynamics. Employing advanced panel econometric techniques—FMOLS, DOLS, and PARDL—and treating regulatory quality (REGURAQUAL) as an exogenous determinant, the analysis identifies the structural and institutional factors shaping carbon intensity (CI). The results indicate that regulatory quality, transport efficiency, and long-run emissions trajectories significantly reduce carbon intensity, while the independent contribution of renewable energy is comparatively weaker. Agricultural productivity exhibits a nonlinear relationship with emissions, validating the EKC hypothesis: emissions increase during early growth but decline beyond a threshold as modernization and climate-smart practices enhance efficiency. The study’s scientific value lies in its integrated approach, combining economic, institutional, and sectoral dimensions to explain long-run decarbonization in transitional economies. By focusing on post-socialist Europe, it advances EKC research beyond income-based models and underscores the importance of governance and structural transformation. Limitations include data coverage and cross-country heterogeneity, suggesting future work should adopt spatial and nonlinear frameworks and include adaptation and resilience metrics. Overall, robust governance and technological innovation can guide post-socialist economies toward sustainable, low-carbon growth.