Assessment of the Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Carbon Emissions Using Remote Sensing and Deep Learning: A Case Study of the Kağıthane Basin

This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Kağıthane basin, Istanbul, a region experiencing rapid urban growth, to assess its environmental sustainability. Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite images processed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform were used for 2017, 2020, and 2023. Optical data from Sentinel-2, after atmospheric and geometric corrections, combined with co- and cross-polarized radar backscatter from Sentinel-1, supported land cover classification. Additionally, 14 spectral indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Urban Index (UI), enhanced discrimination between classes. To estimate LULC projections for 2035, 2050, 2065, 2080, and 2095, the Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) model was used, which integrates artificial neural networks with a cellular automata framework. Six driving variables, roads, streams, topographic parameters (elevation, slope, and aspect), and population density, were incorporated into multiple scenarios. Model performance was evaluated using overall accuracy, Kappa statistics, and confusion matrices, yielding strong results (91.88% accuracy; Kappa = 0.84). The simulations indicate a significant decline in forest cover and barren lands, while vegetation and built-up areas are projected to grow steadily, raising concerns about long-term urban sustainability. Water bodies are projected to remain relatively stable. Under these changes, future direct carbon emissions were estimated using carbon emission coefficients by land class. Indirect carbon emissions were estimated based on natural gas and electricity consumption data. Considering both direct and indirect emissions, the results indicate a decrease in carbon emissions from 2023 to 2035, followed by an increase of up to 13% between 2035 and 2095. These findings emphasize the importance of combining multi-sensor remote sensing data with spatially explicit modeling to accurately assess land use changes in rapidly urbanizing basins. The study emphasizes the critical need to adopt sustainability measures that address changes in carbon emissions and guide future urban planning towards a more sustainable path.