The Synergistic Development of Agricultural Chemical Emissions Reduction and Food Production Based on Decoupling and LMDI Models: A Case Study of Shandong Province

Agricultural chemicals are indispensable in the process of traditional grain production and are also a major contributor to agricultural carbon emissions. Exploring the relationship between agricultural chemical carbon emissions and grain production is of significant importance for reducing agricultural emissions and promoting environmentally friendly grain production. To this end, this study employs the Tapio model and the LMDI factor decomposition model to analyze the decoupling relationship between agricultural chemical carbon emissions and grain production in Shandong Province—a typical grain-producing region in northern China—from a production perspective, focusing on the period from 2011 to 2023. The results indicate that during this period, Shandong Province achieved improvements in grain production technology, leading to a gradual improvement in the decoupling relationship between grain production and agricultural chemical carbon emissions. The factors influencing agrochemical carbon emissions during grain production initially shifted from being suppressed by output scale effects and promoted by technological effects to being suppressed by technological effects and promoted by output scale effects. Ultimately, synergistic development was achieved in Shandong Province by reducing agrochemical emissions and increasing grain production. This study provides a theoretical basis for synergistic development in agrochemical emission reduction and grain yield enhancement, while also offering a new perspective for research on reducing emissions during grain production.