Study on RSEI Changes Using Remote Sensing and Markov-FLUS Modeling Approach

With the rapid advancement of the Hainan Free Trade Port (HFTP), substantial changes in land use and ecological systems have emerged. The study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological quality in Hainan Province from 2017 to 2024 and projects its potential evolution through 2030 under different development scenarios. A comprehensive framework integrating the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) simulations was employed. Multi-source datasets, including remote sensing imagery, geographic, meteorological, and socio-economic data, were combined with the Markov–FLUS model to simulate future land-use patterns. The results indicate extensive urban expansion and a notable increase in construction land, accompanied by a continuous decline in RSEI values, particularly under the business-as-usual scenario. In contrast, policy-guided simulations suggest more sustainable land allocation and gradual improvement in ecological quality. The findings demonstrate that integrating scenario-based simulation with ecological index modeling provides an effective approach for supporting ecological conservation and sustainable urban planning in tropical island regions experiencing rapid economic transformation.