Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Extreme Climate Events in Jilin Province from 1970 to 2020

Under global warming, the rising frequency and intensity of extreme climate events pose challenges to disaster prevention and sustainable development. Based on daily meteorological observations from 1970 to 2020 in Jilin Province, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of extreme temperature and precipitation events. Linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test were employed to examine temporal trends and abrupt change years in extreme temperature and precipitation indices. Wavelet analysis was used to identify dominant periodicities and multi-scale variability. Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF) revealed the spatial distribution characteristics of variability in extreme precipitation and temperature across Jilin Province, identifying high-incidence zones for extreme temperature and precipitation events. Additionally, Pearson correlation analysis was to investigate the correlation patterns between extreme climate indices in Jilin Province and geographical environmental factors alongside atmospheric circulation indicators. Results show that: (1) Warm-related temperature indices display significant upward trends, while cold-related indices generally decline, with abrupt changes mainly occurring in the 1980s–1990s and dominant periodicities of 3–5 years. Precipitation indices, though variable, show general increases with 3–4year cycles. (2) Spatially, most indices follow an east–high to west–low gradient. Temperature indices exhibit spatial coherence, while precipitation indices vary, especially between the northwest and central-southern regions. (3) The Arctic Oscillation (AO) exhibits a significant negative correlation with the extreme cold index, with correlation coefficients ranging from −0.31 to −0.46. It shows a positive correlation with the extreme warm index, with correlation coefficients between 0.16 and 0.18, confirming its regulatory role in cold air activity over Northeast China, particularly elevation and latitude, influence the spatial distribution of precipitation. These findings enhance understanding of extreme climate behaviors in Northeast China and inform regional risk management strategies.