The Assessment of the Impact of the Subway Stations Opening on Urban Vibrancy in Warsaw

This study investigates how the expansion of Warsaw’s metro system—specifically the opening of the second underground line (M2)—affects urban vibrancy, defined as the diversity and intensity of social, economic, and cultural activities. Using a spatial panel Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model with two-way fixed effects, the analysis examines changes in local vibrancy, proxied by the density of small catering businesses (SCB), across four years (2019–2023). Our results show that while built environment features such as building footprint, parking area, and street furniture positively correlate with vibrancy, the short-term effect of new metro stations is negative: areas within a 15 min walking distance of new stations experienced a relative decline in local activity compared to control areas. This pattern likely reflects a behavioral shift, as residents and consumers increasingly use the metro to access amenities in central, already vibrant districts. However, the effect attenuates over time, suggesting that neighborhoods gradually adapt to new mobility conditions. The findings highlight that large-scale transport investments may generate temporary disruptions before fostering long-term equilibrium and renewed urban vitality, underscoring the need for adaptive urban policies that mitigate transitional impacts and support local socio-economic resilience.