Non-Farm Employment, Agricultural Policies and Cotton Planting Acreage Decline in China’s Yangtze River Basin: 2000–2022

Using panel data from 182 county-level cotton-growing regions in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River (2000–2022), this study investigates the drivers of cotton planting area contraction, focusing on the synergistic impacts of non-farm employment, agricultural policies, and their synergies, while verifying mechanisms via rural labor outflow and cotton economic returns. From a sustainability perspective, cotton planting area and output were relatively stable with fluctuations in 2000–2010, but plummeted by 80.6% and 82.8%, respectively, by 2022 (a “cliff-like” decline). Empirical results from the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) show: (1) Non-farm employment significantly reduces local cotton cultivation and exhibits spatial spillover effects—counties neighboring or economically similar to regions with higher non-farm employment experience greater pressure for contraction; (2) This contraction is more pronounced in counties with smaller rural populations and lower cotton returns, confirming that labor scarcity and low profitability are key channels; (3) Agricultural policies exacerbate the decline: the 2005 Reward Policy for Major Grain-Producing Counties triggers cotton-to-grain substitution, while the 2014 shift from cotton temporary stockpiling to target price subsidies further accelerated the contraction of cotton cultivation in inland regions. This study contributes to understanding agricultural system transitions in the Yangtze River Basin, offering insights for optimizing sustainable planting structure adjustment and balancing food security with cash crop development under rural economic transformation.