Participatory Scenario Development for Sustainable Cities: Literature Review and Case Study of Madrid, Spain

Sustainable mobility policies are unlikely to succeed without efforts to tackle disagreement between different social groups. In this context, we describe a participatory process based around semi-structured interviews with expert stakeholders in sustainable mobility in the city of Madrid. Information elicited from interviews was structured using the Natural Step approach, based on detailed analysis of stakeholder discourse, into four scenarios of sustainable mobility: Remote Working, The 15-min City, Electric City and Public City. Subsequently, the four scenarios were subject to critical analysis by a second group of experts during a stakeholder workshop. The Remote Working scenario was considered a partial solution applicable to only ~30% of the population and saved commuter trips might be canceled out by increased mobility elsewhere. The 15-min City was seen as desirable but utopian and dependent on political consensus and major public investment. The Electric City was thought useful for reducing emissions but hard to implement due to infrastructure limitations and cost. The Public City was seen as an integrated vision from which other solutions should flow but also politically divisive. While no single scenario was unanimously backed by all participants, different coalitions of interest tended to support different approaches. Collectively, the four scenarios reveal divergent pathways to the same goal (a more sustainable city), suggesting ways forward for policy.