The Impact of Rural Demographic Structure on Agricultural New-Quality Productivity in China: Evidence from a Panel Dataset of 30 Provinces

As China advances its rural revitalization and agricultural modernization, agricultural new-quality productivity (ANQP)—driven by technological innovation and efficient factor allocation—has become essential for achieving sustainable agricultural growth. This study examines how the rural demographic structure influences ANQP, focusing on four key dimensions: age, gender, household, and consumption. Using balanced panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2013–2022, a comprehensive ANQP index is constructed through the entropy-weight method, and a two-way fixed-effects model is employed, supplemented by robustness and heterogeneity tests. The results show that ANQP has steadily increased nationwide but remains significantly shaped by demographic characteristics. Specifically, population aging exerts a strong inhibitory effect by crowding out productive investment and slowing technology adoption, while gender imbalance weakens labor division efficiency and distorts resource allocation. In contrast, consumption upgrading acts as a positive driver by stimulating demand for high-quality agricultural products, whereas household size has no statistically significant effect. Regional heterogeneity further reveals diverse patterns—such as stronger aging constraints in central regions and pronounced positive effects of consumption upgrading in southern coastal areas. Overall, the findings underscore the critical role of demographic dynamics in driving agricultural transformation and provide evidence-based policy implications for promoting sustainable and innovation-led agricultural development.