Integrating Social–Ecological Systems and Megatrends: A Participatory Foresight Framework for Sustainability Governance in European Cold Lands

Mountainous and sparsely populated regions in Europe—here called “cold lands”—are particularly exposed to global megatrends such as climate change, demographic shifts, and economic restructuring. Addressing these interconnected challenges requires approaches that link foresight with local governance systems. This study presents a pilot methodological framework that integrates Ostrom’s Social-Ecological Systems (SES) model with the European Commission’s Megatrend Assessment method to support participatory foresight. The framework was tested in two illustrative cases, located in the Italian Alps and Norway, to demonstrate its feasibility and potential value. Through a structured discussion among researchers, key megatrends were prioritised, and qualitative scenarios were developed to explore how community preparedness can influence socio-ecological outcomes. The results highlight climate change, resource scarcity, and demographic imbalances as dominant drivers, while contrasting scenarios illustrate how proactive governance can mitigate vulnerability and foster adaptive capacity. The approach contributes a replicable and scalable foresight tool to bridge global trends and local sustainability strategies, supporting anticipatory and community-based governance in vulnerable territories.