New Quality Productive Forces, Technological Innovations, and the Carbon Emission Intensity of the Manufacturing Industry: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

Carbon emissions from the manufacturing sector have long been a critical environmental concern. New quality productive forces ( NEP ), which integrate advanced technologies and innovative practices to enhance production efficiency while reducing environmental impact, provide robust support for the green and sustainable development of manufacturing. However, previous studies have not established empirical evidence linking NEP to manufacturing carbon emission intensity ( CEI ), nor have they identified the underlying transmission channels. This study makes a methodological innovation by explicitly differentiating technological innovation into disruptive and progressive categories to examine their distinct mediating roles. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2021, we investigate the direct, heterogeneous, and spatial effects of NEP on CEI , along with the mediating effects of different innovation types. The results demonstrate that NEP significantly reduces CEI , and this finding remains robust after addressing endogeneity concerns and conducting comprehensive robustness checks. Mechanism analysis reveals that NEP achieves emission reduction primarily through promoting disruptive innovation—fundamental shifts in operational paradigms that substantially reduce environmental footprints. Heterogeneity analysis indicates the strongest emission reduction effect in central China. Based on these findings, we propose targeted policy recommendations: cultivating NEP as a fundamental driver, accelerating green technology industrialization, establishing a three-dimensional policy framework integrating innovation incentives, market regulation, and supervisory safeguards, and implementing regionally differentiated strategies. These approaches provide actionable pathways for achieving China’s dual-carbon goals and promoting sustainable manufacturing development.