Research on Safety Evaluation Methods for Interchange Diverting Zones Based on Operating Speed

In response to the growing safety challenges posed by large-scale and specialized freight transportation on China’s rapidly expanding highway network, this study investigates the operational characteristics of trucks in interchange diverging areas—a critical segment with elevated accident risks. Leveraging high-frequency trajectory data collected from 16 interchanges, we analyze speed profiles and acceleration behavior of heavy trucks across key sections: the diversion influence zone, preparation zone, transition segment, and deceleration lane. A key contribution of this work is the development of a continuous speed prediction model based on Partial Least Squares Regression, which integrates road geometric parameters and driving behavior features to estimate speeds at four critical cross-sections of the diverging process. Furthermore, we propose a comprehensive safety evaluation framework incorporating three novel indicators: longitudinal speed consistency, lateral stability, and deceleration comfort. The model demonstrates strong performance, with all mean absolute percentage errors below 10% during validation using data from four independent interchanges. Comparative analysis with existing safety standards confirms the practical applicability and accuracy of the proposed methodology. This research offers three major contributions: (1) a systematic approach for processing large-scale trajectory data and predicting truck speeds in diverging areas; (2) a safety assessment framework tailored for geometric design consistency evaluation; and (3) empirical support for optimizing traffic safety facilities in interchange design and operation. The findings address a significant gap in current highway design guidelines and provide actionable insights for enhancing safety in truck-dominated transportation environments.