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China’s Chrome Demand Forecast from 2025 to 2040: Based on Sectoral Predictions and PSO-BP Neural Network

Author

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  • Baohua Du

    (College of Mining Engineering, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China
    Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Hongye Feng

    (Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Zhen Zhang

    (Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China)

  • Qunyi Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China)

  • Hongjian Zhu

    (School of Vehicle and Energy, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066000, China)

  • Guwang Liu

    (Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
    Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China)

  • Lei Liu

    (College of Mining Engineering, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Xiuli Han

    (College of Mining Engineering, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Xuguang Zhao

    (College of Mining Engineering, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

  • Shuai Li

    (College of Mining Engineering, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan 063210, China)

Abstract

Chromium is a critical material for stainless steel production. With economic growth and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, China’s demand for chromium has been increasing year by year. Conducting research on chromium demand forecasting holds significant practical implications for the sustainable development of China’s chromium industrial chain. China’s chromium consumption accounts for one-third of the global, over 95% of which has long-term depended on imports, and 90% of which is used in stainless steel production. In this paper, a linear correlation model between chromium consumption and stainless steel production is constructed by using the department demand forecasting method. The importance of influencing factors on chromium demand is analyzed using the gray correlation degree, and a PSO-BP neural network algorithm is constructed to predict China’s chromium demand from 2025 to 2040. The results indicate that the predictions of the two methods are relatively consistent, with demand for chromium expected to peak in 2035 and then decline gradually thereafter. This provides an important reference basis for the security and sustainable development of China’s chromium supply chain.

Suggested Citation

  • Baohua Du & Hongye Feng & Zhen Zhang & Qunyi Liu & Hongjian Zhu & Guwang Liu & Lei Liu & Xiuli Han & Xuguang Zhao & Shuai Li, 2025. "China’s Chrome Demand Forecast from 2025 to 2040: Based on Sectoral Predictions and PSO-BP Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:20:p:9115-:d:1771294
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