Effects of Agricultural Production Patterns on Surface Water Quality in Central China’s Irrigation Districts: A Case Study of the Four Lakes Basin

To explore the coupling between agricultural farming models and surface water environmental in central China’s irrigation districts, this study focuses on the Four Lakes Basin within Jianghan Plain, a key grain-producing and ecological protection area. Integrating remote sensing images, statistical yearbooks, and on-site monitoring data, the study analyzed the phased characteristics of the basin’s agricultural pattern transformation, the changes in non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus loads, and the responses of water quality in main canals and Honghu Lake to agricultural adjustments during the period 2010~2023. The results showed that the basin underwent a significant transformation in agricultural patterns from 2016 to 2023: the area of rice-crayfish increased by 14%, while the areas of dryland crops and freshwater aquaculture decreased by 11% and 4%, respectively. Correspondingly, the non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus loads in the Four Lakes Basin decreased by 11~13%, and the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in main canals decreased slightly by approximately 2 mg/L and 0.04 mg/L, respectively; however, the water quality of Honghu Lake continued to deteriorate, with nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations increasing by approximately 0.46 mg/L and 0.06 mg/L, respectively. This indicated that the adjustment of agricultural farming models was beneficial to improving the water quality of main canals, but it did not bring about a substantial improvement in the sustainable development of Honghu Lake. This may be related to various factors that undermine the sustainability of the lake’s aquatic ecological environment, such as climate change, natural disasters, internal nutrient release from sediments, and the decline in water environment carrying capacity. Therefore, to advance sustainability in this basin and similar irrigation districts, future efforts should continue optimizing agricultural models to reduce nitrogen/phosphorus inputs, while further mitigating internal nutrient release and climate disaster risks, restoring aquatic vegetation, and enhancing water environment carrying capacity.