Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Vulnerability of Wood-Consuming Mills in Coastal Georgia, United States

This study assesses the potential impact of sea level rise (SLR) on wood-consuming mills in coastal Georgia, a major forestry state in the southern United States. To assess the vulnerability of wood-consuming mills in coastal Georgia, two potential wood procurement zones are defined: areas within 40 miles (64.4 km) and 64 miles (103 km) of the radius of each wood-consuming mill. The projected SLR scenarios of 2 ft (0.61 m) and 6 ft (1.83 m)—approximating intermediate and high-end conditions for coastal Georgia, respectively—are then overlaid onto the procurement zones of each mill to calculate the percentage of procurement area lost to the inundation. Our findings indicate that a 2 ft rise would have a minimal impact on wood supply for most wood-consuming mills. On the other hand, some facilities in Glynn and Liberty Counties could experience a substantial loss of up to 26% of their wood procurement area under a 6 ft sea level rise with a 40-mile wood procurement zone due to proximity to inundation. A larger procurement radius of 64 miles mitigates this impact, though spatial variability persists. Woody wetlands suffer the highest proportional losses across buffers and scenarios; upland forest types remain mostly intact under 2 ft SLR and display moderate loss under 6 ft. This study emphasizes the significance of accounting for spatially variable climate change impacts when planning for mill resilience. The results inform long-term sustainability strategies for wood-consuming mills in coastal regions of Georgia and beyond.