Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scale Driving Mechanisms of Ecosystem Service Value in Wuhan, China

This study examined the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of ecosystem service value (ESV) in Wuhan from 1985 to 2020. Using multi-temporal land-use data, remotely sensed vegetation indices, and socioeconomic statistics, we estimated the ESV with an improved equivalent-factor method and analyzed its drivers using a Geodetector and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Over the 35-year period, total ESV for Wuhan showed a mildly declining trend, decreasing from CNY 37.464 billion in 1985 to CNY 36.439 billion in 2020. Waterbodies contributed the largest share of ESV, followed by croplands and forests. In the urban core, ESV declined significantly, with low-value zones expanding outward from the city center. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant “high–high” and “low–low” clustering. Geodetector results indicated slope, elevation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as the primary natural drivers, with human footprint, gross domestic product (GDP), and population density acting as important socioeconomic auxiliaries. Interactions between natural and socioeconomic factors substantially increased the explanatory power. Furthermore, GWR revealed pronounced spatial heterogeneity in the sign and magnitude of the factor effects across the study area, underscoring the complexity of ESV drivers. These findings provide quantitative evidence to support spatially differentiated ecological planning and conservation strategies during urbanization in Wuhan and the broader mid-Yangtze region.