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Measuring Multidimensional Resilience of China’s Oil and Gas Industry and Forecasting Resilience Under Multiple Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Lixia Yao

    (School of Economics and Management, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing 163318, China)

  • Zhaoguo Qin

    (School of Economics and Management, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing 163318, China)

  • Yanqiu Wang

    (School of Economics and Management, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing 163318, China)

  • Xiangyun Li

    (School of Economics and Management, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing 163318, China)

Abstract

In the context of a rapidly changing global energy landscape and mounting pressures on energy security, enhancing the resilience of the oil and gas industry (OGI) has become a critical task for safeguarding China’s energy security. This study develops a multidimensional resilience indicator system—comprising recovery, adaptability, responsiveness, and innovation—and, based on OGI data for 2001–2022, employs the entropy method to quantitatively assess resilience by sub-dimension and development stage. Leveraging a backpropagation (BP) neural network, we construct a dynamic simulation model to produce long-term, multi-scenario forecasts of China’s OGI resilience for 2023–2032, enabling comparison of development potential across scenarios. The results indicate that overall resilience exhibited a fluctuating upward trend and reached a medium-strength resilience level by 2022, with innovation and recovery gradually emerging as the dominant drivers. Forecasts show that under the green-transition scenario, resilience will improve the most, increasing by 5.49% by 2032 and reaching the threshold for strong resilience earlier than under other scenarios. These findings offer actionable insights for enhancing the reliability and sustainability of energy supply chains in the face of climatic and geopolitical challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Lixia Yao & Zhaoguo Qin & Yanqiu Wang & Xiangyun Li, 2025. "Measuring Multidimensional Resilience of China’s Oil and Gas Industry and Forecasting Resilience Under Multiple Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-18, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:17:p:8019-:d:1743341
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2016. "A review of definitions and measures of system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61.
    2. Yasir Mahmood & Tanzina Afrin & Ying Huang & Nita Yodo, 2023. "Sustainable Development for Oil and Gas Infrastructure from Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Tomasz Ingram & Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala & Karel Hlaváček, 2023. "Organizational Resilience as a Response to the Energy Crisis: Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-35, January.
    4. Martin Hromada & David Rehak & Ludek Lukas, 2021. "Resilience Assessment in Electricity Critical Infrastructure from the Point of View of Converged Security," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
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