The Attribution Identification of Runoff Changes in the Kriya River Based on the Budyko Hypothesis Provides a Basis for the Sustainable Management of Water Resources in the Basin

Identifying the impact of climate change and changes in underlying surface conditions on river runoff changes is critical for sustainable water resource use and watershed management in arid regions. The Kriya River is not only a key support for water resources in the arid environment of the Tarim Basin, but also a solid foundation for the survival and development of agricultural oases. In this study, the Kriya River Basin in Xinjiang, China, was taken as the research object, and the Mann–Kendall, Sen’s Slope, Cumulative Sum, and other methods were used to systematically analyze the temporal evolution law and multi-modal characteristics of runoff in the basin. Based on the Budyko hydrothermal coupling equilibrium equation, the contribution of temperature, evaporation, and the underlying surface to runoff variation was quantitatively interpreted. The study found that the annual runoff depth of the Kriya River Basin has shown a significant positive evolution trend in the past 60 years, with an increase rate of 0.5189 mm/a ( p ≤ 0.01). Through the identification of mutation points, the runoff time series of the Kriya River was divided into the base period 1957–1999 and the change period 2000–2015. Without considering the supply of snowmelt runoff, the contribution rate of precipitation to runoff change was 75.23%, followed by the change in underlying surface (23.08%), and the potential evapotranspiration was only 1.69%. The results of this study provide a good scientific reference for water resources management and environmental governance in the Kriya River Basin.