Ecological Zoning in Mountainous Areas Based on Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Landscape Ecological Risk: A Case Study of the Hengduan Mountain Region

Ecological zoning is a key approach to promoting regional ecological protection and sustainable development. At present, landscape ecological risk (LER), driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors, continues to intensify, thereby disrupting ecosystem functions and weakening their service capacity. Although ecosystem services (ESs) and LER have been increasingly integrated into ecological management and policy-making in recent years, the interactive relationship between them remains insufficiently explored, particularly in the context of ecological zoning based on their coupled characteristics. Therefore, this study focuses on the Hengduan Mountain region from 2000 to 2020, analyzing the relationship between ES trade-offs and LER, constructing ecological zones, and proposing targeted management strategies. The results show that: (1) ESs in the region are primarily characterized by concave trade-offs, with decreasing trade-off intensity over time. The overall LER level has decreased, exhibiting a spatial pattern of higher risk in the south and lower risk in the north. (2) Bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals that LER is positively correlated with the trade-offs of carbon storage and soil conservation, shifts from a negative to a positive correlation with carbon storage and water yield, and shifts from a positive to a negative correlation with soil conservation and water yield. (3) Based on overlay zoning, the region is divided into protection, warning, and restoration zones, each with corresponding management measures. This study takes ecological zoning as a starting point to deeply analyze the relationship between ES trade-offs and LER, providing a scientific basis for sustainable development of mountain ecosystems.