Urbanization and Ecosystem Services Supply–Demand Mismatches Across Diverse Resource-Based Cities: Evidence from Sichuan, China

Resource-based cities, characterized by a prolonged dependence on resource extraction and persistent urban expansion, frequently exhibit significant imbalances between the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs). Understanding how various types of resource-based cities respond to urbanization in terms of ESs supply–demand relationships is crucial for advancing sustainable urban development. This study examines three representative resource-based cities in Sichuan Province—Nanchong (growing), Luzhou (declining), and Panzhihua (mature)—to analyze changes in six key ESs from 2000 to 2020, including soil retention, carbon sequestration, water yield, habitat quality, food production, and recreational services. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random forest (RF) models were employed to evaluate the effects of gross domestic product (GDP) density, construction land proportion (CLP), and population (POP) density on the ecosystem service supply–demand ratio (ESDR), and to explore variations in sensitivity among these cities. The results demonstrate that (1) ESs’ supply–demand patterns differ significantly among the three city types. Nanchong exhibited a declining supply and increasing demand for regulating services; Luzhou displayed improvements in its water yield and recreational services but persistent degradation of habitat quality; and Panzhihua achieved notable gains in carbon sequestration and habitat quality. (2) Urbanization generally reduced the ESDR across all three cities. However, the GDP density positively influenced the ESDR in Nanchong, while the CLP and the POP density exerted widespread negative effects. In Luzhou, the ESDR was primarily constrained by the CLP, whereas in Panzhihua, both the CLP and the POP density significantly reduced the ratio. (3) The sensitivity analysis revealed distinct response patterns: Nanchong was most sensitive to CLP, Luzhou responded most strongly to GDP density, and Panzhihua was highly sensitive to both GDP density and POP density. These findings underscore the necessity of formulating city-type-specific development strategies—such as land restoration, population control, and industrial upgrading—tailored to different types of resource-based cities, in order to reconcile urbanization with ecosystem service dynamics, promote green transformation, and contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).