Spatiotemporal-Imbalance-Aware Risk Prediction Framework for Lightning-Caused Distribution Grid Failures

Lightning strikes pose a significant threat to the reliability of power distribution networks, with cascading effects on energy sustainability and community resilience. This paper proposes a lightning disaster risk prediction model for distribution networks, designing a lightning strike hazard matrix to classify historical fault records and incorporating future multi-source heterogeneous data to predict lightning-induced fault hazard levels and enhance the sustainability of grid operations. To address spatiotemporal imbalances in data distribution, we first propose diagnostic threshold settings for low-frequency elements alongside a method for calculating hazard diagnostic criteria. This approach systematically integrates high-hazard, low-frequency factors into risk analyses. Second, we introduce an adaptive weight optimization algorithm that dynamically adjusts risk factor weights by quantifying their contributions to overall system risk. This method overcomes the limitations of traditional frequency-weighted approaches, ensuring more robust hazard assessment. Experimental results demonstrate that, compared to baseline models, the proposed model achieves average improvements of 21%/8.3% in AUROC, 30.2%/47.4% in SE, and 20.5%/8.1% in CI, empirically validating its superiority in risk prediction and engineering applicability.