Mechanism Between Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions and Its Impact on Industrial Structure Rationalization in Northeast China

Against the backdrop of the deepening implementation of the “Double Carbon” goals, reducing carbon emissions poses great pressure on China. As major agricultural and industrial provinces, the industrial structure of the three northeastern provinces has a crucial impact on carbon emissions. In order to explore this phenomenon, this study employed provincial and municipal data from 2007 to 2019 to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions and GDP in Northeast China. The Tapio decoupling model was applied to assess the elasticity coefficient between economic development and carbon emissions, while the Theil index was used to evaluate the rationalization of the industrial structure. Then, a multiple linear regression model (MLR) was innovatively applied to explore the relationship between the indexes of the two models. This study found that carbon emissions and GDP in the three provinces both exhibited the characteristic of Liaoning > Heilongjiang > Jilin. In the decoupling analysis, 64.7% of the cities were dominated by benign decoupling. The negative decoupling areas were primarily composed of industrial cities in the southwest and resource-based cities in the east. In the rationalization analysis, there were large-scale irrational areas in 2019, which were concentrated in northwestern and southwestern industrial cities, and occasionally in eastern resource-based cities. There was a certain degree of spatial overlap between these two problematic areas. The MLR result showed that there was a positive correlation between the elasticity coefficient and the Theil index, indicating that optimizing the industrial structure can promote the upgrading of the decoupling status toward strong decoupling. This study provided a theoretical basis for improving the decoupling of carbon emissions and economic development through industrial structure rationalization. For overlapping regions, emission reduction can be prioritized through the rationalization of the industrial structure to achieve a better decoupling status.