Application of an Integrated DEMATEL-ISM-BN and Gray Clustering Model to Budget Quota Consumption Analysis in High-Standard Farmland Projects

To overcome the absence of a standardized budget quota system for high-standard farmland projects and the resultant extended compilation cycles and high workloads, this study systematically analyzes quota consumption and innovatively proposes an integrated DEMATEL-ISM-BN and gray clustering analytical model. Through a literature review and engineering feature analysis, a hierarchical factor system was established, encompassing six dimensions (environmental, technical, labor, machinery, material, and management) and 24 indicators. The DEMATEL-ISM method quantified factor weights and structured them into a five-level hierarchy, while Bayesian networks (BNs) enabled probabilistic productivity predictions (29% conservative, 45% moderate, and 26% advanced). Gray clustering was integrated to derive a comprehensive representative consumption value, and validation across six regions demonstrated a comprehensive productivity index of 0.986 (CV = 2.6%) for 17 earthwork projects, confirming model robustness. This research constructs a standardized “factor structure analysis–probabilistic deduction–regional clustering” framework, providing a theoretical foundation for precise budget compilation in high-standard farmland and proposing a novel methodological paradigm for quota consumption research.