Understanding Farmers’ Knowledge, Perceptions, and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Eastern Rwanda

This study investigates farmers’ knowledge, perceptions, and adaptation strategies to climate change in Rwanda’s Eastern Province, integrating social and physical science approaches. Analyzing meteorological data (1981–2021) and surveys from 204 farmers across five districts, we assessed climate trends and adaptation behaviors using statistical methods (descriptive statistics, Chi-square, logistic regression, Regional Kendall test, dynamic linear state-space model). Results show that 85% of farmers acknowledge climate change, with 54% observing temperature increases and 37% noting rainfall declines. Climate data confirm significant rises in annual minimum (+0.76 °C/decade) and mean temperatures (+0.48 °C/decade), with the largest seasonal increase (+0.86 °C/decade) in June–August. Rainfall trends indicate a non-significant decrease in March–May and a slight increase in September–December. Farmers report crop failures, yield reductions, and food shortages as major climate impacts. Common adaptations include agroforestry, crop diversification, and fertilizer use, though financial limitations, information gaps, and input scarcity impede adoption. Despite limited formal education (53.9% primary, 22.3% no formal education), indigenous knowledge aids seasonal prediction. Farm location, group membership, and farming goal are key adaptation enablers. These findings emphasize the need for targeted policies and climate communication to enhance rural resilience by strengthening smallholder farmer support systems for effective climate adaptation.