The Impact of the Spread of Risks in the Upstream Trade Network of the International Cobalt Industry Chain

The intensifying global competition for cobalt resources and the increasing likelihood of trade decoupling and disruption are profoundly impacting the global energy transition. In a globalized trade environment, a decline in cobalt supply from exporting countries can spread through the trade network, negatively affecting demand countries. Quantitative analysis of the negative impacts of export supply declines in various countries can help identify early risks in the global supply chain, providing a scientific basis for energy security, industrial development, and policy responses. This study constructs a trade network using trade data on metal cobalt, cobalt powder, cobalt concentrate, and ore sand from the upstream (mining, selection, and smelting) stages of the cobalt industry chain across 155 countries and regions from 2000 to 2023. Based on this, an impact diffusion model is established, incorporating the trade volumes and production levels of cobalt resources in each country to measure their resilience to shocks and determine their direct or indirect dependencies. The study then simulates the impact on countries (regions) when each country’s supply is completely interrupted or reduced by 50%. The results show that: (1) The global cobalt trade network exhibits a ‘one superpower, multiple strong players’ characteristic. Congo (DRC) has a far greater destructive power than other countries, while South Africa, Zambia, Australia, Russia, and other countries have higher destructive power due to their strong storage and production capabilities, strong smelting capabilities, or as important trade transit countries. (2) The global cobalt trade network primarily consists of three major risk areas. The African continent, the Philippines and Indonesia in Southeast Asia, Australia in Oceania, and Russia, the United States, China, and the United Kingdom in Eurasia and North America form the primary risk zones for global cobalt trade. (3) When there is a complete disruption or a 50% reduction in export supply, China will suffer the greatest average demand loss, far exceeding the second-tier countries such as the United States, South Africa, and Zambia. In contrast, European countries and other regions worldwide will experience the smallest average demand loss.