Toward a Sustainable Livestock Sector in China: Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from a Life Cycle Perspective

Addressing the sustainability challenges posed by the expanding livestock sector is crucial for China’s green transition. With the transformation of national dietary structure and increasing demand for livestock products, the associated resource consumption and environmental impacts, particularly carbon emissions have intensified. Reducing carbon emissions from livestock is vital for mitigating global warming, enhancing resource utilization efficiency, improving ecosystems and biodiversity, and ultimately achieving sustainable development of the livestock industry. Against this backdrop, this study measures the carbon emissions from livestock sector employing the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method, and applies the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM) to analyze the factors affecting the changes in carbon emissions, aiming to quantify and analyze the carbon footprint of China’s livestock sector to inform sustainable practices. The findings reveal that China’s total carbon emissions from the livestock sector fluctuated between 645.15 million tons and 812.99 million tons from 2000 to 2023. Since 2020, emissions have entered a new phase of continuous growth, with a 5.40% increase in 2023 compared to 2020. Significantly, a positive trend toward sustainability is observed in the substantial decline of carbon emission intensity over the study period, with notable reductions in emission intensity across provinces and a gradual convergence in inter-provincial disparities. Understanding the drivers is key for effective mitigation. The output level and total mechanical power consumption level emerged as primary positive drivers of carbon emissions, while output carbon intensity and mechanical power consumption carbon intensity served as major negative drivers. Moving forward, to foster a sustainable and low-carbon livestock sector, China’s livestock sector development should prioritize coordinated carbon reduction across the entire industrial chain, adjust the industrial structure, and enhance the utilization efficiency of advanced low-carbon agricultural machinery while introducing such equipment.