The Dynamic Relationships Among Green Technological Innovation, Government Policies, and the Low-Carbon Transformation of the Manufacturing Industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: An Analysis Based on the PVAR Model

Green technological innovation, government policies, and the low-carbon transformation of the manufacturing industry are critical for promoting high-quality development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. This study, based on input–output and total factor productivity theories, selects relevant variables and utilizes a PVAR model to analyze data from 11 provinces in the region from 2011 to 2023. The empirical results indicate that (1) green technological innovation and the low-carbon transformation of the manufacturing industry exhibit significant bidirectional causality, with the low-carbon transformation exerting a stronger positive impact on green innovation, underscoring the “demand–pull” effect. (2) Government policies provide initial impetus for both green innovation and low-carbon transformation but show signs of self-restriction and diminishing returns over time, reflecting a typical “policy lag–decay” pattern. (3) Variance decomposition highlights the dominant role of green technological innovation in driving long-term low-carbon transformation, while the direct impact of government policies remains limited, indicating that policy effectiveness is largely mediated through technological channels. These findings emphasize the importance of enhancing regional green innovation capacity, establishing dynamic policy feedback mechanisms, and fostering sustained technological advancement as key pathways to deepening the low-carbon transformation.