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A Unified Generalized Extreme Value Distribution Framework for Estimating Lake Reference Nutrient Conditions with Confidence Intervals: A Case Study of Hongze Lake, China

Author

Listed:
  • Anan Wang

    (School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China)

  • Haomiao Cheng

    (School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China)

  • Wei Jiang

    (Jiangsu Rural Water Conservancy Science and Technology Development Center, Nanjing 210029, China)

  • Wei Ma

    (Huaihe River Basin Eco-Environmental Monitoring and Scientific Research Center of Huaihe River Basin Ecological Environmental Supervision and Administration Bureau, Ministry of Ecology and Environment of People’s Republic of China (MEE), Bengbu 233000, China)

  • Fukang Yang

    (School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China)

  • Lihua Zhang

    (School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China)

  • Xiaohong Jiang

    (School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China)

  • Liang Wang

    (School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China)

Abstract

The scientific determination of reference conditions for lake nutrients is fundamental for establishing ecologically sustainable nutrient criteria. This study developed a novel method for determining lake reference nutrient conditions based on generalized extreme value distribution theory. The method establishes a unified framework by integrating Weibull, Gumbel, and Fréchet distributions. It was applied to estimate the reference nutrient conditions in Hongze Lake, the fourth-largest freshwater lake in China. The results indicated that the extreme value sequences of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) followed the generalized extreme value distribution, thereby confirming the method’s feasibility. The recommended reference conditions for TN and TP in Hongze Lake were 0.65 mg/L and 0.031 mg/L, respectively, with 95% confidence intervals of 0.56–0.74 mg/L for TN and 0.026–0.035 mg/L for TP. The proposed method could avoid the artificial errors associated with data grouping in descriptive statistical methods and assist in formulating adaptive water management strategies by providing confidence intervals for reference nutrient concentrations. The spatial distribution of the reference TN and TP concentrations across various watersheds in China revealed that the eastern watersheds exhibited higher reference concentrations of TN and TP compared to the western watersheds. This study provides valuable insights for developing nutrient criteria for lakes, contributing to the sustainable management of water quality in regional lake ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Anan Wang & Haomiao Cheng & Wei Jiang & Wei Ma & Fukang Yang & Lihua Zhang & Xiaohong Jiang & Liang Wang, 2025. "A Unified Generalized Extreme Value Distribution Framework for Estimating Lake Reference Nutrient Conditions with Confidence Intervals: A Case Study of Hongze Lake, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:10:p:4465-:d:1655626
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liang Wang & Yulin Wang & Haomiao Cheng & Jilin Cheng, 2018. "Estimation of the Nutrient and Chlorophyll a Reference Conditions in Taihu Lake Based on A New Method with Extreme–Markov Theory," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-11, October.
    2. Yunfeng Xu & Chunzi Ma & Shouliang Huo & Dayi Zhang & Zhiping Xu & Guangren Qian & Beidou Xi, 2014. "Establishing Reference Conditions for Lake Water Quality: A Novel Extrapolation Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2161-2178, June.
    3. Mingqing Qin & Panpan Fan & Yuying Li & Hongtian Wang & Wanping Wang & Han Liu & Beata Messyasz & Ryszard Goldyn & Bailian Li, 2023. "Assessing the Ecosystem Health of Large Drinking-Water Reservoirs Based on the Phytoplankton Index of Biotic Integrity (P-IBI): A Case Study of Danjiangkou Reservoir," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Yi Wu & Rong Dai & Yongfeng Xu & Jiangang Han & Pingping Li, 2018. "Statistical Assessment of Water Quality Issues in Hongze Lake, China, Related to the Operation of a Water Diversion Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
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