Carbon Emissions Dynamics and Environmental Sustainability in China’s Tourism Sector: A 22-Year Comprehensive Regional Study

China’s tourism industry has rapidly grown over the past two decades, significantly contributing to the national economy but also increasing carbon emissions. This has raised concerns about environmental sustainability, especially given China’s commitments to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This study analyzes the changes in carbon emissions, carbon carrying capacity, and the Tourism Carbon Pressure Index (TCPI) of China’s tourism industry from 2000 to 2022, aiming to support the green transition of the sector. Examining data from 31 provinces, we observed a significant growth trend in carbon emissions, with a temporary decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, followed by a rebound in 2021 and 2022. The findings reveal that carbon emissions and carrying capacity are relatively stable in the eastern regions, but more pronounced in central and western regions, particularly the west. The TCPI is higher in the east, indicating greater environmental pressure, while it is rapidly increasing in central and western regions. To achieve sustainable tourism development, we propose promoting green transportation, eco-friendly hotels, and green scenic spots, improving resource utilization efficiency, enhancing policy support and technological innovation, and adopting regional development strategies. These measures will help reduce tourism-related carbon emissions and contribute to national carbon neutrality goals. This study provides a comprehensive analysis and actionable insights to guide the sustainable transformation of China’s tourism industry.