Rainfall and Extreme Drought Detection: An Analysis for a Potential Agricultural Region in the Southern Brazilian Amazon

In recent decades, the main commercial crops of Mato Grosso, such as soybeans, corn, and cotton, have been undergoing transformations regarding the adoption of new technologies to increase production. However, regardless of the technological level, the climate of the region, including the rainfall regime, can influence the success of crops and facilitate, or not, the maximum production efficiency. This study aimed to define the behavior of the variability in monthly and annual rainfall and its probability of monthly occurrence and calculate the drought index for the northwestern region of Mato Grosso, in the southern region of the Brazilian Amazon. To carry out the study, daily rainfall records were collected, calculating the totals for each month of the historical series for each of the four National Water and Sanitation Agency (ANA) rain gauge stations, Aripuanã (1985–2020), Colniza (2001–2020), Cotriguaçu (2004–2020), and Juína (1985–2020), representing the northwestern region. The annual distribution of rainfall during the periods studied ranged from 1376.2 to 3017.3 mm. The monthly distribution indicated a typical water shortage in the months of June, July, and August. The probability of rainfall near the average for each month was more than 50%. The monthly SPI-1 index revealed a total of 56 months affected by very dry events and 34 extreme dry events. The annual SPI-12 index pointed to seven very dry years and five extremely dry years. Therefore, the region presented high rainfall rates in most years; however, a significant process of drought was also observed, including in rainy months, which are the periods with the greatest demand for the main agricultural crops.