Evaluation and Prediction of Regional Innovation Ecosystem from the Perspective of Ecological Niche: Nine Cities in Hubei Province, China as the Cases

Based on niche theory, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for regional innovation ecosystem suitability from four aspects: innovation benefits, innovation technology, innovation culture, and innovation policy. The niche evaluation model is used to calculate and compare the suitability and evolutionary momentum of the innovation ecosystems in nine prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province from 2017 to 2022. Using the grey prediction model GM (1,1), the development of niche suitability for the nine prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province over the next five years is predicted. The results showed that, from the perspective of the niche, the overall suitability of the innovation niches in the nine prefecture-level cities of Hubei Province is relatively low, with higher evolutionary momentum, and the two exhibited a reverse development trend. The forecast results indicated that the suitability of the innovation niches in the nine prefecture-level cities of Hubei Province will follow different development trends in the next five years, with central cities showing higher development than non-central cities. Accordingly, this study provides a more scientific method for the evaluation, monitoring, forecasting, and improvement of regional innovation ecosystems at the city level. It supports policy formulation and strategic planning for the nine prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province and other regions from the aspects of innovation benefits, innovation technology, innovation culture, and innovation policy. At the same time, this study also provides new research pathways for the academic community, encouraging scholars to adopt multidisciplinary and multi-faceted approaches to explore the complexity and dynamics of regional innovation ecosystems in depth. It utilizes this information to optimize and adjust regional innovation policies to better adapt to the needs of global innovation competition.