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Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Climate Indices in Türkiye Driven by High-Resolution Downscaled CMIP6 Climate Models

Author

Listed:
  • Berkin Gumus

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, 06800 Ankara, Türkiye)

  • Sertac Oruc

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Kırşehir Ahi Evran University, 40100 Kırşehir, Türkiye
    Construction Law and Management Program, Istanbul Medipol University, 34810 Istanbul, Türkiye)

  • Ismail Yucel

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, 06800 Ankara, Türkiye)

  • Mustafa Tugrul Yilmaz

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, 06800 Ankara, Türkiye)

Abstract

In this study, the latest release of all available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models with two future scenarios of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, over the period 2015–2100 are utilized in diagnosing climate extremes in Türkiye. Coarse-resolution climate models were downscaled to a 0.1° × 0.1° (~9 km) spatial resolution using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-Land (ERA5-Land) dataset based on three types of quantile mapping: quantile mapping, detrended quantile mapping, and quantile delta mapping. The temporal variations of the 12 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and 12 extreme temperature indices (ETIs) from 2015 to 2100 consistently suggest drier conditions, in addition to more frequent and severe precipitation extremes and warming temperature extremes in Türkiye, under the two future scenarios. The SSP5-8.5 scenario indicates more severe water stress than the SSP2-4.5 scenario; the total precipitation decreases up to 20% for Aegean and Mediterranean regions of Türkiye. Precipitation extremes indicate a decrease in the frequency of heavy rains but an increase in very heavy rains and also an increasing amount of the total precipitation from very heavy rain days. Temperature extremes such as the coldest, warmest, and mean daily maximum temperature are expected to increase across all regions of Türkiye, indicating warming conditions by up to 7.5 °C by the end of the century. Additionally, the coldest daily maximums also exhibit higher variability to climate change in the subregions Aegean, Southeastern Anatolia, Marmara, and Mediterranean regions of Türkiye while the mean daily maximum temperature showed greater sensitivity in the Black Sea, Central Anatolia, and Eastern Anatolia regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Berkin Gumus & Sertac Oruc & Ismail Yucel & Mustafa Tugrul Yilmaz, 2023. "Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Climate Indices in Türkiye Driven by High-Resolution Downscaled CMIP6 Climate Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-38, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7202-:d:1133412
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hadush Meresa & Bernhard Tischbein & Tewodros Mekonnen, 2022. "Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2649-2679, April.
    2. Dipesh Chapagain & Sanita Dhaubanjar & Luna Bharati, 2021. "Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-23, September.
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