An Analysis of an Ecological–Economic Model of Asian Elephant Population Development under the Influence of Human Disturbance

The population development of Asian elephants ( Elephas maximus ) has been greatly affected by the intensification of human activities. In this study, development of the Asian elephant population under the influence of human disturbance was analyzed logically, with expansion of the rubber forest area as the main influencing factor. The ecological–economic model of Asian elephant population development was constructed using the logical analysis method, the population growth model and the integrated environmental–economic control model. The results are as follows: (1) Theoretically, the ecological–economic model could be applied to the analysis of wildlife conservation and regulation and management policies; (2) The data show that in 2016, the intrinsic growth rate of Asian elephants in Xishuangbanna was 0.0216 head/day, which has a strong proliferation capacity, meaning the population will continue to grow under natural conditions. However, at present, the population development of Asian elephants has been negatively affected by human interference, which has reduced the population growth rate of Asian elephants to 0.0193 head/day, and this impact has a tendency to intensify; (3) From 2004 to 2016, the investment rate of Asian elephants increased by 0.182, while the anti-interference protection rate of Asian elephants decreased by 0.227. The overall development trend of Asian elephants was from equilibrium point one (golden age) to equilibrium point two (dark age).